What does a risk off trade look like in this market?
Chris Vermeulen joins me to address the broad based correction this week and look at what a risk off trade is right now. With the runs that PMs and US markets went on since March some of the excesses needed to be washed out. Unfortunately we are all stuck waiting to see what governments are gong to do if COVID cases keep rising.
By adding a couple of years to that chart, we can see that the March low fell precisely to an old pitchfork resistance-turned-support (what are the odds of that?)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3AGLD&p=D&yr=3&mn=1&dy=7&id=p95358523318&a=606883153
wow…that is
Good charts Matthew. Thanks. Wondering if ISVLF double bottomed yesterday.
Impact looks more promising than many peers to me. It hasn’t been so oversold since March and has remained well above its August low despite silver going much lower.
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF&p=D&yr=0&mn=11&dy=0&id=p81911487510&a=817892249
BUT, the weekly indicators don’t look great at all so even if we get a strong bounce here, it will probably be stuck in a range for awhile (3-4 weeks?)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=ISVLF&p=W&yr=5&mn=0&dy=0&id=p94862018729&a=642610362
Thanks for the charts. I am always concerned when they work us into those triangles where it is not clear whether things are going up or down.. until it happens.
Thanks for the chart Matthew. Agreed that things need to settle down for a while before they go higher.
I thought I was being funny a couple days ago when I posted a gold price chart with $1570 as a far out possibility.
But now Erik Townsend has asked, “How deep could the correction go?” and the answer is $1377 although he isn’t expecting gold price to get there.
Will post the link to MacroVoices below so I don’t end up in a queue.
Erik talks gold starting at 6:20
I remember when Townsend was just the weird guy who called in to Jim Puplava’s show every single week with a question. To me, he’s still that guy. He doesn’t know gold well which is why his forecast for 2019 was as bad as Brent Johnson’s. I have no time for him.
Good to know; I don’t follow him that closely. I seem to remember that he missed buying the 2019 consolidations because he was expecting much lower lows.
Eric Sprott say’s that the average person in the U.S. has a federal government debt of $244,000, a family of four would owe $1 million, that doesn’t include state, municipal, or personal debt. Total debts for a family of four could easily be $2 million or more. Americans are enslaved in debt chains. DT
Chris your trades lately have been, well let say not your best year.
First you kept insisting retest March lows and SDS lost big, then you get in gdxj and panic out and miss the big run up, then you get back in gdxj and we have this correction and you stop out, Also your xlk pic because tech breaking out but also get stop out with this correction, your Iyr also stop out and only thing your hanging on is tlt which is going nowhere.
Maybe your technical trading is off, spend less time promoting your newsletters and stay off the radio shows and get your head back in the game.
Chris, you did great last few years with your technical calls, but who didn’t stocks went up up up under trump, all technical newsletters went up easy when your in bull mkt.
True test from technical people like you is can you get it right in tough market conditions, so you haven’t been tested in trouble market till this year and your not performing good.
Even your long term newsletter didn’t get your subscribers out as stocks we’re crashing in March, you let them take hit all way down then when we finally got bounce out of low in March you had them sell 50 PCT of portfolio because you were calling a retest of lows when in fact mkt rallied next couple months to new highs.
So they lost ton money on way down you didn’t ride recovery and if that don’t beat all you just last month recommended they put that 50 PCT you sold back inarch to buy back in stocks at new highs say a breakout coming only to have another sell off and they are loosing another 10-25 pct on top of the 30 pct they lost by not getting out as crash was unfolding.
You got out the swing traders but left the cheap newsletter fee subscribers hang out to dry.
Not very good record, and you got nerve to go on every radio show and brag about technical traders and your system, truth is your like many others pump when everything going up 3 years under trump but the minute we get into tough trading mkt your system is a failure.
People run for the hills.
The current correction in the miners (XAU) is now more than twice as long as the May-June correction and has been a little deeper (-19% vs -17%) but, priced in GLD, the miners have held up better this time (-13.25% vs -15.5%)…
https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=%24XAU%3AGLD&p=D&yr=1&mn=1&dy=7&id=p27247879216&a=606883153